FinSynapse — Macro Thermometer

Generated 2026-05-15 06:35 BJT · auto-rebuilt by GitHub Actions · weights in config/weights.yaml

🇨🇳 CN calendar_today Data as of 2026-05-14 🇭🇰 HK calendar_today Data as of 2026-05-14 🇺🇸 US calendar_today Data as of 2026-05-14
help What is the thermometer? arrow_outward

bolt Today's takeaways

Three things worth 30 seconds — auto-generated from today's silver data.

thermostat
🇺🇸 US United States is the standout
Temperature 87°, in the Hot zone, up 3.7° this week.
call_split
HSI vs Southbound flow
HK rallies while southbound money exits — driven by foreign capital, lacking domestic confirmation. Sustainability questionable.
monitoring
US CAPE (Shiller P/E) sits at 100-pct (10y)
Current value 42.66, extreme high — `us_cape`.
menu_book Today's note (LLM narrative) — generated by local LLM/template · numbers sourced from silver
2026-05-14

截至5月14日，三地市场温度分化极为显著。美股综合读数86.8，处于“热”区间，为三者中最热。A股综合读数78.5，同样位于“热”区，本周小幅上行0.56。港股综合读数仅13.8，落入“冷”区，且本周下跌7.3，是三者中最冷且边际最弱的方向。

近期出现两个值得关注的背离信号。其一，标普500与VIX同步走高（5月8日、12日均有出现），指数上行期间波动率指数并未回落，显示上涨并非建立在风险偏好改善之上。其二，标普500与10年期美债收益率方向相背，指数升而收益率降，表明驱动来自流动性预期，而非增长确认。这种结构在估值极端区域通常暗示脆弱性。

风险提示：美股席勒CAPE读数为42.66，处于十年百分位的100%极值，叠加上述背离，需警惕高估值下利空信息对价格的放大效应。

thermostat Market temperatures

🇨🇳 CN
China A-share
🔥 Hot
calendar_today Using data 2026-05-14
history Hist. percentile P79
arrow_outward
Valuation 71°
Sentiment 94°
Liquidity 73°
Weekly attribution
Valuation
+1.9°
Sentiment
+1.2°
Liquidity
+0.5°
🇭🇰 HK
Hong Kong
🧊 Cold
calendar_today Using data 2026-05-14
history Hist. percentile P15
arrow_outward
Valuation 15°
Sentiment 11°
Liquidity 35°
Weekly attribution
Valuation
+1.0°
Sentiment
-27.2°
Liquidity
-5.0°
🇺🇸 US
United States
🔥 Hot
calendar_today Using data 2026-05-14
history Hist. percentile P70
arrow_outward
Valuation 98°
Sentiment 66°
Liquidity 48°
Weekly attribution
Valuation
—
Sentiment
-3.8°
Liquidity
-1.2°

radar Cross-market comparison

trending_up Long-history temperature

call_split Divergence signals (last 90 days)

Signal strength
High
HSI vs Southbound flow
hsi_southbound · 2026-03-10
HSI ↑ + southbound ↓: HK rises without mainland support — foreign-led rally?
HK rallies while southbound money exits — driven by foreign capital, lacking domestic confirmation. Sustainability questionable.
A +2.17% B -186.23%
Signal strength
Medium
CSI 300 vs A-share turnover
csi300_volume · 2026-03-03
CSI300 ↑ + turnover ↓: rally without participation — distribution risk
A-shares rise on shrinking turnover — narrow participation; watch for distribution into retail.
A -1.54% B +8.17%
Signal strength
Low
Gold vs Real yield
gold_real_rate · 2026-02-12
Gold ↑ + real yield ↑: de-dollarization / sovereign hedge bid?
Gold rises despite higher real yields — typically central-bank or sovereign hedging. A de-dollarization tell.
A -2.92% B -3.23%
Signal strength
Low
S&P 500 vs US 10Y
sp500_us10y · 2026-03-20
SP500 ↑ + 10Y ↓: liquidity-driven rally without growth confirmation
Stocks up while yields drop — rally is liquidity-driven, lacking growth confirmation.
A -1.51% B +2.57%
Signal strength
Low
HSI vs DXY
hsi_dxy · 2026-03-23
HSI ↑ + DXY ↑: HK rallies despite USD strength — domestic catalyst?
HK rallies despite a strong dollar — atypical; usually points to a local catalyst (policy / earnings / event).
A -3.54% B -0.70%
Signal strength
Low
S&P 500 vs VIX
sp500_vix · 2026-03-19
SP500 ↑ + VIX ↑: rising on rising fear — beware
Stocks rise even as fear rises — investors are hedging on the way up. Often a turning-point tell.
A -0.27% B -4.11%
expand_more Recent divergences (last 90d)
monitoring Data health
455 issues (0 fail / 455 warn)
date indicator rule severity detail
2026-05-14 us_erp jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.2472 vs roll_std=0.0400
2026-05-07 us_effr jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0027 vs roll_std=0.0004
2026-04-07 us_on_rrp jump_5sigma warn pct_change=66.5991 vs roll_std=8.9437
2026-03-31 us_on_rrp jump_5sigma warn pct_change=19.9867 vs roll_std=2.6988
2026-03-19 cn_credit_impulse jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-1.0858 vs roll_std=0.1402
2026-02-16 hk_aggregate_balance jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0878 vs roll_std=0.0158
2026-01-30 gold_futures jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.1137 vs roll_std=0.0206
2026-01-04 cn_dr007 jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.2699 vs roll_std=0.0510
2025-12-31 cn_dr007 jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.2310 vs roll_std=0.0368
2025-12-31 hk_aggregate_balance jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0570 vs roll_std=0.0102
2025-12-19 cn_credit_impulse jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.3799 vs roll_std=0.0526
2025-12-17 cn_south_5d jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-5.0226 vs roll_std=0.7719
2025-12-16 hk_ewh_yield_ttm jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.9755 vs roll_std=0.1265
2025-11-20 us_on_rrp jump_5sigma warn pct_change=4.7750 vs roll_std=0.9267
2025-10-30 us_effr jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0607 vs roll_std=0.0108
2025-10-27 us_on_rrp jump_5sigma warn pct_change=3.3704 vs roll_std=0.6507
2025-09-18 us_sofr jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0548 vs roll_std=0.0104
2025-09-18 us_effr jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0577 vs roll_std=0.0075
2025-08-15 cn_south_5d jump_5sigma warn pct_change=3.4763 vs roll_std=0.5410
2025-07-01 cn_credit_impulse jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.3457 vs roll_std=0.0603
2025-06-16 hk_ewh_yield_ttm jump_5sigma warn pct_change=1.2303 vs roll_std=0.1733
2025-06-13 hk_ewh_yield_ttm jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.4998 vs roll_std=0.0663
2025-05-12 us3m_yield jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0184 vs roll_std=0.0034
2025-05-07 hk_monetary_base jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0585 vs roll_std=0.0076
2025-05-07 hk_aggregate_balance jump_5sigma warn pct_change=2.6160 vs roll_std=0.3386
2025-04-29 cn_south_5d jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-16.8307 vs roll_std=2.2375
2025-04-09 sp500 jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0952 vs roll_std=0.0189
2025-04-07 hsi jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.1322 vs roll_std=0.0237
2025-04-07 csi300_pe_ttm jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0603 vs roll_std=0.0105
2025-04-07 csi300_pb jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0534 vs roll_std=0.0105
2025-04-07 csi300 jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0705 vs roll_std=0.0124
2025-04-03 us_hy_oas jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.1725 vs roll_std=0.0318
2025-04-03 us_baa10y_spread jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0925 vs roll_std=0.0183
2025-04-01 us_erp jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.3119 vs roll_std=0.0491
2025-04-01 cn_credit_impulse jump_5sigma warn pct_change=10.7746 vs roll_std=1.4074
2025-03-19 cn_credit_impulse jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-1.2891 vs roll_std=0.1852
2025-01-20 cn_credit_impulse jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.4924 vs roll_std=0.0795
2024-12-19 us_effr jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0546 vs roll_std=0.0096
2024-12-18 us_t10y3m jump_5sigma warn pct_change=6.0000 vs roll_std=0.8998
2024-12-18 vix jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.7404 vs roll_std=0.1150
2024-12-17 hk_ewh_yield_ttm jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.4710 vs roll_std=0.0646
2024-12-13 us_t10y3m jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-3.0000 vs roll_std=0.4297
2024-12-11 cn_south_5d jump_5sigma warn pct_change=22.3982 vs roll_std=2.9748
2024-11-01 us_t10y3m jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.3333 vs roll_std=0.0607
2024-09-30 csi300_pe_ttm jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0748 vs roll_std=0.0140
2024-09-30 csi300 jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0848 vs roll_std=0.0163
2024-09-30 csi300_pb jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0769 vs roll_std=0.0147
2024-09-19 us_effr jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0938 vs roll_std=0.0121
2024-09-19 us_sofr jump_5sigma warn pct_change=-0.0957 vs roll_std=0.0129
2024-09-16 hk_aggregate_balance jump_5sigma warn pct_change=0.0586 vs roll_std=0.0116